Short time horizon solar power forecasting
نویسندگان
چکیده
We are exploring algorithms to predict the aggregate power output of many photovoltaic systems in a single geographic region on a 3-hour time horizon at 5-minute steps (a 36-step forecast) based only on observed system power. The goal is to correctly identify upcoming “ramp events,” or large positive or negative deviations from a long-term trend over a short time period (Sevlian and Rajagopal, 2013). Identifying these ramp events before they occur will allow grid operators to plan for large changes in net load, thereby allowing for deeper penetration of solar power generation on the grid.
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